Many perceptual processes and neural computations, such as speech recognition, motor control and learning, depend on the ability to measure and mark the passage of time. However, the processes that make such temporal judgements possible are unknown. A number of different hypothetical mechanisms have been advanced, all of which depend on the known, temporally predictable evolution of a neural or psychological state, possibly through oscillations or the gradual decay of a memory trace. Alternatively, judgements of elapsed time might be based on observations of temporally structured, but stochastic processes. Such processes need not be specific to the sense of time; typical neural and sensory processes contain at least some statistical structure across a range of time scales. Here, we investigate the statistical properties of an estimator of elapsed time which is based on a simple family of stochastic process.

We describe a class of models that predict how the instantaneous firing rate of a neuron depends on a dynamic stimulus. The models utilize a learnt pointwise nonlinear transform of the stimulus, followed by a linear filter that acts on the sequence of transformed inputs. In one case, the nonlinear transform is the same at all filter lag-times. Thus, this "input nonlinearity" converts the initial numerical representation of stimulus value to a new representation that provides optimal input to the subsequent linear model. We describe algorithms that estimate both the input nonlinearity and the linear weights simultaneously; and present techniques to regularise and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. In a second approach, the model is generalized to allow a different nonlinear transform of the stimulus value at each lag-time. Although more general, this model is algorithmically more straightforward to fit. However, it has many more degrees of freedom than the first approach, thus requiring more data for accurate estimation. We test the feasibility of these methods on synthetic data, and on responses from a neuron in rodent barrel cortex. The models are shown to predict responses to novel data accurately, and to recover several important neuronal response properties.